Apopka State University

How would you feel if the job you've been doing for most of your life just moved offshore without any warning?

What if you just spent several years getting an education for a job that was no longer in high demand?

How would you like to know the secrets to choosing a satisfying career that will also be in high demand?

By understanding the major trends that are affecting our lives, you will be able to play an active role in planning and directing your career. By understanding these trends you will have a better chance of seeing the big changes before they hit.

This look into the future will show you the careers that are expected to have high demand and some that aren't. But more importantly this article will show you the basics of "trend spotting" so that you can make your own intelligent career choices.

Trend Spotting

By understanding the major trends that affect jobs you will be able to make better career decisions for yourself.

Trends are like waves on the ocean. Some are very big, some are very small. Some trends last only a few years like the DOT COM trend, while others go on seemingly forever.

The trends we are interested in may be as short as a few years or as long as 20+ years. Just like waves, trends move and change everything they come in contact with. If you aren't prepared for the big wave it will wash over you, tumbling you like a toy in the ocean.

Initially, trends start off so small that most people don't notice them. Eventually trends build up to a crescendo. Somewhere in between they make the evening news. The trick is to spot trends just as they begin, so that you have time to take action and change your life. An even better trick would be to predict the trends before they start.

Technology Trends

Probably the most prevalent trend in our time has been that of technological innovation.

Revolutions in technology continue to cause rapid, almost un-predictable changes in career demand. Changes in technology can obsolete your job causing you to be laid off, downsized, right sized, and just plain inconvenienced.

Here are a few examples of jobs which were once in great demand but are now declining or totally extinct, at least in North America and Europe:

Typesetting - Has been replaced by the first Apple computers and the advent of desktop publishing. Typesetting began in the 1400's with the first printing presses. The trend away from typesetting to desktop publishing started in the early 1980's and was completed by the mid 1990's. Thousands of people had their careers upset by this trend.
Secretarial Dictation - Has been replaced by individuals doing their own word processing, starting in the late 1980's as the cost of personal computers came down.
IBM punch card operator - Was obsoleted along with IBM punch cards by ~1985. Prior to that, punch card data entry employed tens of thousands.
Telex (TWX) Operator - Was obsoleted by the advent of the FAX machine, ~ 1980
FAX Machine Operator - Once the cost of FAX machines came down, most people handled their own faxes rather than having an assistant do it. Finally, most but not all faxes gave way to Email. 1980 to 1995.
Telephone Operators - Once a premier job, demand was reduced significantly by touch tone systems and then later by voice recognition technology.
Drafting Technician- Manual drafting using pencil and ruler was replaced by Computer Aided Drafting (CAD) in the 1980's.

Low Tech Is Good Tech

Drivers Of The Trends

Trends are about change and every change has at its core, a "driver." To predict or spot a new trend, look for these basic forms of drivers.

The Automation Trend

We have only seen the first wave of automation in our lives. The effect so far has been to eliminate jobs involving highly repetitive tasks. The net effect has been fewer "unskilled" jobs.

Automation is the result of the need to reduce cost which in turn is driven by a company's need to become more competitive, to be able to grow market share, and to generate higher earnings for investors. Automation, one of the first methods for reducing cost, had been a big trend between 1950 and 2000.

Jobs that were not easily mechanized, such as many manufacturing jobs, have already been moved to countries where the cost of labor is cheaper. Most of these jobs have been relocated to Mexico, Taiwan, India and China. Ten years from now, as the labor costs in those countries rise, the jobs may move to Africa or North Korea.

The next phase of automation will not occur in the factory, but in our homes, in our lives, and in the information that we use.

The last wave of automation in the home was to mechanize simple repetitive tasks such as dish washing and clothes washing. Home automation is driven by the need to save time.

Say Goodbye To:
Data Entry, Programming, Tech Support and Customer Service Jobs

A new trend which became obvious in ~1998 is for entry level "knowledge worker" jobs such as programming, customer service, tech support, and accounting to be moved to countries with English speaking lower cost workers. This trend is just getting started and it could hollow out the English speaking economies of North America and Europe.

A large portion of programming, tech support, data entry, and accounting jobs can be handled remotely from countries such as India where they speak perfectly polite Queen's English, and where they have excellent educational systems. This puts many lucrative jobs at risk.

Even extremely high tech, high skill jobs such as Analog Integrated Circuit Designers have started moving offshore to India and China. Taiwan already has several home grown integrated circuit design houses. Eventually, Silicon Valley companies will no longer be willing to pay high prices for local circuit design talent, they will use talent in China and India whenever possible.

Unless the government intervenes, English speaking countries with low labor cost and well educated people will pull high paying jobs out of the United States and Europe.

What does this mean for someone just now planning their career. Proximity and creativity are the key. You really have two choices:

Essentially you want to pick a career that requires your physical presence and that can not easily be done remotely. Combining proximity with creativity in a career gives you added security.

Does this mean you should panic and get out of software development or any other high tech, high paying job? It depends.

The first projects to move offshore are usually the most simple, low risk projects. Adding distance and cultural differences almost always adds time and complexity to any development project. The types of projects that will stay onshore:

Projects that represent low risk to management, such as making minor upgrades to a product, or copying someone else's product, will most certainly be moved offshore.

Skilled Trades Looking Very Good

The good news is that the traditional skilled trades such as carpentry, plumbing, electrician, hair stylist, construction contractors, auto mechanics, dental hygienists look good in terms of being secure from moving offshore. The main threat will be lower cost labor coming across the Mexico / US border.

Since you can't have an auto mechanic who is located in China tune up your car in the US, these types of jobs will be secure from low cost foreign labor. Because of proximity, we strongly recommend the traditional trades. Make sure you pick the one that is right for you. CareerPlanner.com's Career Test can help you figure this out.

Increased Traffic for Delivery Services

As online retail sales continues to climb, UPS, FEDEX and the Postal Service will have to deliver more and more packages. That is good news for drivers, pilots, airplane mechanics etc.

Home delivery has been on the rise and will continue to be driven by the need to save time.

If home grocery delivery ever takes off, and it looks like it will the second time around, the demand for drivers and truck mechanics will increase even more.

This trend should continue until someone invents a Star Trek - like teleportation system or replicator system. So don't hold your breath, delivery services look very, very good for a long time to come.

Entertainment and Content Creation Look Very, Very Good

Cultural differences, and language barriers should effectively protect most of the entertainment industry from moving offshore.

Someone still needs to write the books, the screen plays, the TV shows, the music etc. Positions requiring a high level of creativity and originality should still be highly valued.

The impact of computer simulation on actors is still an unknown and does present some risk. As compute power grows over the next decade, the ability to completely and believably simulate an actor will become widely available.

Reality TV will have a minor impact on the demand for actors. Unique personalities and talented people will always catch our interests and will be in high demand, at least until we tire of them.

Less Demand For Most Retail Jobs and Cashiers

Retail store positions will decline gradually as home shopping and Internet shopping continue to grow. There will always be retail stores and retail positions, just fewer of them.

One of the more positive trends in retail was started by Walmart. Employing older, retired people to man the store floor was a brilliant move and a win-win for everyone.

Demand for cashiers will gradually decline as stores install self service scanners and checkout. Home Depot and certain grocery stores began widespread use of automated self checkout in ~2002 to 2003. There will always be cashier positions, just less of them.

What about stocking clerks, those folks that come in at night to load up the shelves? Same as most retail store positions. It's work that has to be done, even in the giant warehouse stores. But if you can buy it online and get it faster and cheaper, then watch out.

Marketing Looks Very Good

We think that with increased competition, companies will find they have to do a much better job of differentiating their products and services. Marketing positions should see good demand, but only for the best. Marketing is one of those fields where the mediocre don't survive.

We think Strategic Marketing will become even more critical as companies find they need new and better strategies to succeed.

Lawyers

Now would be a good time for a lawyer joke but I don't have any. There will probably always be a need for attorneys. However we think that as the public begins to understand how the cost of doing business has risen due to the influence of trial attorneys there should be some reduction in demand for that sort of lawyer. We can only hope.

We do see an increased demand for patent and intellectual property lawyers, as well as estate and tax planning lawyers. These are people who are experts in a specific field such as bio tech, tax law, copyright law, etc. They are experts first and lawyers second as opposed to ambulance chasing attorneys.

The Aging Population Trend

The trend towards a growing older population that is living longer is already creating high demand in products and services tailored to this demographic. Home healthcare and nursing homes are just two areas to benefit.

We see healthcare as a great field for many years to come. Insurance companies, politicians and trial lawyers will unfortunately continue their negative impact on this critical field for some time. None the less, even with breakthrough medical technologies, people will continue to need healthcare workers.

One threat however is if the politicians reduce the licensing requirements for medical professionals, allowing less educated, possibly poorly trained people into this field. Healthcare needs to be high quality.

The Internet Trend

By linking everyone's home directly to manufacturers and service providers the entire infrastructure and sales channel has been changing. Anyone who makes his or her living as a middleman had better change careers or become expert at adding unique value.

The Vanishing Middleman

The middleman in many business transactions will gradually disappear largely as a result of technology and competition. With increased competition, neither the manufacturer nor the customer will be willing to pay for the added cost of the middleman unless he adds substantial value.

Who are the middlemen? Middlemen are found between the manufacturer and the end customer. Usually this is sales people and retailers. For instance, if you can purchase your car over the Internet, why go through a car salesman. If you can purchase airplane tickets over the Internet, directly from the airline, why use a travel agent.

If you must be a middleman be sure you know how to add value and how to differentiate yourself from the competition.

Cocooning

The trend towards cocooning was first identified by Faith Popcorn in her book entitled "The Popcorn Effect" (see the reading list on our web site) or visit her site for some real insight into the trends affecting consumers today. http://www.faithpopcorn.com

Cocooning describes a phenomenon where people will want to stay inside the safety, security and comfort of their homes, their cars, their offices, and their gated communities. People are afraid to go out. This is partially due to mass media's continued effort to frighten the public by showing a constant image of danger.

Thus, people will do more from their homes. They will spend more money to make their homes comfortable and complete. Home entertainment systems, home remodeling will abound.

Energy Shortages

Expect energy prices to rise, especially in the United States. This will change the infrastructure and underlying economy in many ways. With rising energy prices, all materials will cost more to produce. Recycling will be performed for economic reasons more than environmental reasons.

Expect to see more products that save energy such as solid state electronic lighting and more efficient, but more complicated home appliances.

Alternative forms of energy and energy storage will spawn new industries. Home size fuel cells will become available. Photovoltaic cells may finally become financially attractive.

Fighting over oil reserves will continue until breakthroughs in energy take place.

Increased Leisure Time, Sorry No

Increased leisure time has been reported as a trend for a long, long time. We have just never seen it materialize.

Statistics show that people today are working longer hours than their parents. Thus less leisure time.

Although most people don't have more leisure time they now know that and thus value their free time more highly than ever before. This is a great opportunity to

A More Connected Teen and Sub Teen Generation

Children who are now just barely old enough to use a mouse are now going on-line. Instead of watching TV these kids are playing games, getting educated and watching advertisements on the Net.

In growing up with the internet, they will be more comfortable and more adept with it than any prior generation. Statistics are showing that most students now use the internet as their sole source of research and help when doing homework and term papers. What does this say for going to the library?

The protective barrier of the home now has a crack in it where on-line marketers push their wares to the youngest generation.

Meals on Demand

We are still surprised that no one has yet to come up with a good solution to this universal problem. With most mothers working full time jobs, or running their own businesses, who has time to prepare quality meals for the family. The wealthy may have maids, cooks and nanny's, but what about the other 98% of the population. You can't use pizza delivery every night of the week.

What we need is an Amazon.com for meals on demand. Delivery within one hour. Big cities have various forms of take out and delivery, but what about the suburbs. This will surely create jobs for delivery people as well as cooks and chefs.

Top Jobs for the Future

Based on macro trends seen today, the careers listed below should be in relatively high demand throughout the next 10 years.

Almost all jobs, no matter how secure, will experience ups and downs due to the economy and unexpected changes in technology. Thus there is no guarantee.

The key to survival and winning in the career game is to be the best at what you do. Even in tough times, the people who have a reputation for being the best in their field will do better than most.

The key to being the best in your field is to do the type of work that you are truly passionate about. Click here to take the Career Test, that will help you discover what it is you can be the best at.

Top Jobs For The Future